Solutions to probability puzzles can be very counter-intuitive. This is often related to conditional probabilities and Bayesian reasoning, as in the famous Monty Hall Problem. Monty Hall Problem Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car, behind the Read more…
Welcome! This is the Dione Complex Systems blog for probability puzzles. Observed data typically do not have deterministic relations to possible causes that may explain the data. In most real-world data analysis problems data have probabilistic relations to their causes. This is why probability is an essential concept for data Read more…
Many of well-known probability paradoxes are related to selection effects, self-locating belief and/or anthropic reasoning, for example: Statistically, the probability of any one of us being here is so small that you’d think the mere fact of existing would keep us all in a contented dazzlement of surprise. We are Read more…